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Tuesday, February 22, 2011

SOLAR STORM SET TO SLAY SCI-TECH


"HOT, HOT, HOT!" - BUSTER POINDEXTER.
That's not global warming, Mr. Gore. THIS is global warming!

OR
SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF FRYING

How's your disposition this week, folks? Take it away, AFP!

(AFP) Washington - - A geomagnetic space storm sparked by a solar eruption like the one that flared toward Earth last Tuesday is bound to strike again and could wreak havoc across the gadget-happy modern world, experts say.

Contemporary society is increasingly vulnerable to space weather because of our dependence on satellite systems for synchronizing computers, navigational systems, telecommunications networks and other electronic devices.

A potent solar storm could disrupt these technologies, scorch satellites, crash stock markets and cause power outages that last weeks or months, experts said on Saturday at the American Association for the Advancement of Science's annual meeting.

The situation will only get more dire because the solar cycle is heading into a period of more intense activity in the coming 11 years.

"This is not a matter of if, it is simply a matter of when and how big," said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration administrator Jane Lubchenco.

"The last time we had a maximum in the solar cycle, about 10 years ago, the world was a very different place. Cellphones are now ubiquitous; they were certainly around (before) but we didn't rely on them for so many different things," she said.

"Many things that we take for granted today are so much more prone to the process of space weather than was the case in the last solar maximum."

'Don't panic'

The experts admitted that currently, little can be done to predict such a storm, much less shield the world's electrical grid by doing anything other than shutting off power to some of the vulnerable areas until the danger passes.

"Please don't panic," said Stephan Lechner, director of the European Commission Joint Research Centre, drawing laughter from the scientists and journalists in the audience. "Over-reaction will make the situation worse."

The root of the world's vulnerability in the modern age is global positioning systems, or GPS devices, that provide navigational help but also serve as time synchronizers for computer networks and electronic equipment, he said.

"GPS helped and created a new dependency," said Lechner, noting that the technology's influence extends to aerospace and defense, digital broadcast, financial services and government agencies.

In Europe alone, there are 200 separate telecommunication operators, and "nothing is standardized," he said.

"We are far from understanding all the implications here," he said.

No prediction

World governments are hurrying to work on strategies for co-operation and information sharing ahead of the next anticipated storm, though forecasters admit they are not sure when that may occur.

"Actually we cannot tell if there is going to be a big storm six months from now, but we can tell when conditions are ripe for a storm to take place," said the European Space Agency's Juha-Pekka Luntama.

On Tuesday at 01:56 GMT, a huge solar eruption, the strongest in about five years, sent a torrent of charged plasma particles hurtling toward the Earth at a speed of 900km per second.

The force of the Class X flash, the most powerful of all solar events, lit up auroras and disrupted some radio communications, but the effects were largely confined to the northern latitudes.

"Actually it turned out that we were well protected this time. The magnetic fields were aligned parallel, so not much happened," said Luntama.

"In another case things might have been different."

UPDATE: Unfortunately, it did indeed happen. Solar blast, resulting earthquake, tsunami, nuke meltdown, you name it. The country chosen by fate was Japan, and the date was March 11. (See related story on this site regarding the whole radiation-riddled mess.)